Draft Reactions

There are few days I look forward to like draft day. It’s right up there with Christmas and the trading deadline. We’ll today was that day. After a couple hours and 220 picks later, here are my reactions.

-In the first, I had Victor Martinez all set to be drafted at 7, but then the guy before be took Vlad, leaving me with David Ortiz. I couldn’t pass that up. With power dwindling in the AL, he’s just too valuable. In retrospect, I didn’t like taking a DH in the first. For whatever reason, people hate drafting DH’s, which means Thome lasted until the 6th, Thomas the 10th, Butler the 8th, all of whom are going to put up pretty solid stats. I don’t know if I could have justified taking VMart over Ortiz, but it definitely changed the way I picked.

-In the second, I really wasn’t thrilled with my choices. I was hoping to nab a speedy outfielder like Granderson or Markakis, but they were gone. I really couldn’t justify Abreu at that point, and with Bedard coming off the board the pick before me, I thought there was going to be a pitching run, so I jumped at Sabathia, which I really can’t argue with, although my strategy had me looking at pitching rounds 4-6. He was clearly the best player on the board though.

-I was happy to get Torii Hunter in the 3rd. I considered him in the 2nd because of his power/speed combo. Plus the Angels will definitely be a better lineup too. No complains so far.

-I took Ian Kinsler, who I was not really considering pre-draft. The fact that he might leadoff was appealing, probably boosting his steals. I tried for a spread speed offense, hoping to get at many double digit steals guys as possible. I thought second was a pretty weak spot this year, so overall not terrible.

-I grabbed James Shields, who was basically the last of the upper tier pitchers I though. A Sabathia/Shields front end of the rotation is solid. I felt good waiting around for my other starters after this. I don’t know if I’m the only one, but I love the Rays this year, so Shields should only improve on his 12 wins.

-Here’s where I think things started to head south. Coming into the draft, if I didn’t get VMart, I was going to wait and pick up a Suzuki or Navarro. We’ll that changed. I was really considering Posada with my earlier 5th round pick, so when another 5th rounder was offered up, I offered an 8 and 9 for it. I was countered with a 7 and 10, so I took it. I thought there would be more of a catching run than there was, I would have happily took one later. The price wasn’t that steep, and it has the chance to pay off, but Posada could also play like a 36-year-old catcher.

-I loved my next pick. In the 6th, I took Ryan Garko. Over the last six years of drafting, I’ve learned that if you want a guy, get him, even if you think you can get him in the next round or two, take him if you think it’s worth it when the pick is. There’s a fine line between picking for value and talent. Garko was the last good first basemen in the league. He could easily hit 30 bombs this year. I was not stating the year with Casey Kotchman at first. This is maybe my favorite pick of the day.

-I took Hank Blalock in the 7th. After my favorite pick, this might be my least favorite pick, especially with Lamb going much, much later. I feel like injuries aren’t too big of a concern this year for Blalock (he’s basically had his whole body replaced over the last year or so) but I’m probably looking at .270 20 80 out of him. Lamb could probably put that up.

-Another bad pick. There’s a huge rush on closers, and I get suckered into it after my big sleeper George Sherrill is taken, leaving CJ Wilson and BJ Ryan as the two closers left. I thought that Wilson was most likely to be taken since people were talking about him and Accardo was just taken.

-I was happy that BJ Ryan was still around in the 11th. He was the last guy with any real closer potential and I’m pretty convinced will be the closer to start the season. Plus he’s the only guy that I’ve had a man crush on for a couple years now that’s on my team. Even if he doesn’t start the season as the closer, I figure he picks up the bulk of the saves.

-Like Garko, I probably jumped at Luke Scott since the general response was ‘who?’ But this guy is legit. Given a full year, 20-25 bombs is easily in reach. No regrets here.

-Somehow, Gil Meche slipped to the 13th. I didn’t even realize it until the guy picking before me mentioned him. I was holding my breath that he wouldn’t take him. I’m very happy to have him as a 3rd starter. One of my better picks.

-The 14th round is basically where you go best player available. I didn’t have a shortstop, third outfielder, or 4th starter. With none of the other spots really intriguing me, I took Jeremy Guthrie, who had a pretty solid year last year, flew under the radar as an O. I saw him dominate the Red Sox last year, so I’ve always kinda liked the guy. A decent guy to have in the mix for the 4th starter spot.

-Needing a third outfielder and not really having much to choose from, I took a calculate risk on Coco Crisp. At worst, he gets dealt to the NL and I lose him or he sits the bench for the Sox, but according to the latest rumors, he heads to the A’s, which doesn’t do a ton for his steals which I could really use. Could be a huge steal here, maybe my second favorite pick of the day.

-Still not convinced I had enough steals or a third outfielder, I took another very questionable outfielder. I know that Ozzie loves Jerry Owens, but he’s really not promised a spot. But man, if he leads off for the ChiSox, we’re talking 50 steals. Between Crisp and Owens, hopefully I’ll have one solid guy, and in the 15th and 16th, that’s really not too bad.

-Being the last team to need a shortstop, I decided to finally take my guy, because I had a suspicion people would start to screw me over. I picked Brendan Harris, who had a solid year last year and qualifies at 2b and SS, which is always nice if he goes .280 15, I’d be thrilled. It’s not completely unreasonable. Coming in, I targeted Orlando Cabrera, Julio Lugo, and Jason Bartlett at short. I was obsessed with getting speed out of short and Lugo was picked early, I could have had OCab and passed, and Bartlett went earlier than I thought too. So I just sat it out for a while like I wish I did at catcher.

-Joe Saunders in the 18th is solid, he’s going to be the 5th starter on a good Angels team. Just another guy to play against match-ups.

-It seems like every year I draft Tim Wakefield in my last couple picks. The guy won 17 games last year. It’s not always pretty, but he wins, and I’ll play match-ups with him too. While people are picking reserve infielders who are basically going to be worthless for them, Wakefield will be owned all year. I just don’t get what other people are thinking sometimes.

-I feel like your final pick can be a complete crapshoot. You’re expected to cut this guy, but it can turn out great if you pick the right guy. So I took a stab at Kenny Lofton. I have no idea where or an he will sign, but if he does, they guy can play. .280 20 SBs are the minimum. With three guys that can run battling for my third outfield spot, it’s really not the end of the world. And if he doesn’t have a team by the end of the spring, I’ve lost nothing.

Really a pretty solid draft. Far from perfect, but could be worse (I could have drafted Kazmir, Lackey, and Escobar like a guy in my league did.). When looking at the Pecota, Zips, and CHONE projections for the team I drafted, it was third in the league when they were all averaged out. I lead the league in homers and RBI in each projection, which turned out to be a surprised. I tried to have no one dimensional players, so this was a nice surprise, I never thought I’d be the leader. Pitching is going to be a project, especially if Wilson and Ryan don’t close. While these projections mean nothing in the long run, it gives you an idea of how the draft went. I have a pretty good base going into the season, and with some tweaks, I could win the league.